China is on course to reach a turning point in its power sector, with solar energy capacity expected to surpass coal for the first time this year, a development widely described as a “historic” moment in the country’s energy transition.
According to data released by a nonprofit organisation, China solar capacity is forecast to overtake coal in 2026. The shift follows several years of rapid expansion that has established China as the world’s largest solar market, even as the country continues to rely on coal to safeguard energy security.
Figures from the China Electricity Council indicate that by the end of the year, wind and solar energy together will represent around half of China’s total installed power capacity. Over the same period, coal’s share is projected to decline to roughly one-third.
The milestone does not imply that solar power will immediately generate more electricity than coal. Installed capacity reflects the maximum potential output under ideal conditions, rather than actual electricity production. Coal-fired plants can operate continuously, whereas solar output is dependent on daylight and weather patterns. Nevertheless, the pace and scale of recent capacity additions show that wind and solar now dominate China’s power expansion, overtaking fossil fuels as the primary drivers.
Andreas Sieber, head of political strategy at green group 350.org, described the development as a “historic inflection point”. He said it was “proof that clean energy has won on cost, scale, and air quality”, while arguing that the continued expansion of coal capacity makes China’s energy politics “impressive but schizophrenic”.
Others have urged caution against interpreting the capacity crossover as evidence that coal is being displaced in practice.
“This is entirely symbolic, while it can of course be seen as symbolically important,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, energy analyst at the independent research organisation Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air.
“The average capacity factor for solar in China is about 14 per cent and for coal 50 per cent, so coal power plants still generate about 3.5 times as much electricity as solar power.
“The really important stat in terms of power generation from solar and other clean sources is that their growth is now faster than the growth in total power demand, which has started to push down emissions from fossil fuels,” he said.
By the end of 2025, China solar capacity had reached about 1,200 gigawatts, following average annual growth of roughly 270GW over the past three years. Coal capacity, in contrast, is expected to rise to about 1,333GW by the end of 2026. Total generating capacity from all sources is forecast to expand by more than 400GW this year, broadly matching increases in electricity demand.
The rapid deployment of clean energy in developing economies such as China and India is already influencing how electricity is produced. Analysis published last month found that coal-fired power generation declined in both countries in 2025, the first simultaneous drop in half a century, after record renewable additions were sufficient to meet demand growth.
Together, China and India have contributed the majority of global emissions growth over the past decade, making shifts in their power sectors critical for global climate objectives.
Despite the rapid expansion of renewables, China continues to add coal capacity at a pace that contrasts sharply with its clean energy surge. In 2025 alone, the country brought 78GW of new coal power capacity online, following a wave of permits issued after power shortages and rolling blackouts in 2021 and 2022 heightened concerns over supply reliability.
Biqing Yang, energy analyst for Asia at global energy think tank Ember, said recent trends show that coal’s role within China’s electricity system is beginning to change.
“Coal’s role in China’s power system is shifting from a baseload electricity provider towards a source of flexibility and system regulation,” she said, adding that China is also leading globally in deploying battery energy storage as it reforms its power market to support the transition.
Additional coal projects remain under construction or have already received approval, reflecting a policy stance that treats coal as a form of insurance when output from wind, solar, or hydropower falls during heatwaves, droughts, or winter cold snaps.
Critics warn, however, that coal plants intended as backup risk operating more frequently than planned, slowing emissions reductions even as cleaner capacity expands.
“With nearly 290GW of coal already permitted or under construction, far beyond what is needed under China’s 2030 climate commitments, China’s coal expansion neither serves energy security or economic interests,” Mr Sieber said. “It serves only the coal industry racing to lock in assets before the window closes.”
Official projections nonetheless show coal’s share of China’s power fleet continuing to fall. Total installed capacity is expected to reach around 4.3 billion kilowatts by the end of 2026, with non-fossil sources accounting for approximately 63 per cent of the total, while coal’s share declines to about 31 per cent.
“Beijing now faces a clear choice: close in the coal pipeline and manage an orderly transition, or entrench costly, unnecessary assets that will complicate the clean-energy shift it has already won,” Mr Sieber said.