It is predicted that the European Natural Gas price is likely to get more than doubled in 2024 because of the shortages that have been caused due to Russian export drops. It is well to be noted that greater storage capacities as well as a not-so-expected warm winter have already contributed to the sharp decline in European gas prices over the last few months.
The benchmark European contract, which is the Dutch Title Transfer Facility gas futures, has been trading at $55.81 per MW hour. The futures have already hit a record high of around €343 per MW hour in August 2022.
Europe, which has already been severely affected by the gas cutoff from Russia because of the conflict, has somehow managed to get through the cold season without a significant supply crunch. That said, the structural deficit in European natural gas balances is yet to be resolved and serves an upside risk to gas prices in the region, asserts a major US bank.
As per an investment bank, they don’t expect until 2025 that there will be a sustainable solution to the European energy crisis. That’s when the next wave of global liquified natural gas supply projects that happen to be under construction as of now, shall start coming online.
It is estimated in a report rolled out by the International Energy Agency in 2022 that the EU could fall short by around 27 billion cubic metres of gas in 2023 if in case the deliveries from Russia drop to zero and the Chinese imports of LNG get back to the 2021 levels.
Apparently, countries from Europe have already inked several LNG import deals with the US as well as Gulf countries in the past few months. It was only recently that the UAE and Germany announced the delivery of the first LNG shipment from the former to the latter. Several LNG import agreements have been inked by the European nations with the US and Gulf countries over the past few months.
In November last year, QatarEnergy had inked a couple of sales as well as purchase agreements to deliver 2 million tonnes per year to Germany. Also, the second largest US exporter when it comes to LNG said that the fed regulators had given a go ahead for partial start of commercial activities.
The beginning of this plant, which has the capacity to process almost 2.1 billion cubic feet of natural gas in a day and also export 15mn tonnes of LNG in a year, is anticipated to propel domestic gas prices.
As per the global research and consultancy group WoodMac, resumption of the plant is going to allow the US to be the top LNG exporter in 2023, thereby surpassing Qatar as well as Australia. As per the head of gas and LNG asset research for WoodMac, the need for energy as well as record high prices drove the buyers, including US producers, infrastructure companies, and portfolio players, to look into long-term US LNG agreements last year.