The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have been selected as modelling partners for the development of the African Continental Power Systems Master Plan (CMP). The initiative is led by the African Union Development Agency (AUDA) with the technical and financial support of the European Union (EU), and is aimed at establishing a long-term continent-wide planning process. The two agencies’ modelling tools will be the official planning models utilised in this initiative.
African energy ministers tasked the African Union Development Agency (AUDA-NEPAD) to lead the development of the master plan. Following a two-year consultation process coordinated by the EU Technical Assistance Facility (TAF) for Sustainable Energy, the five African power pools selected IRENA and the IAEA to support the continent’s modelling and capacity needs. The two organisations will lead the development of an electricity master plan that promotes access to affordable, reliable and sustainable electricity supplies across the continent.
A unified transmission network in Africa will enable inter-country trade between African countries as well as cross-continental trade with Europe and Asia, via existing links in North Africa, allowing African countries to source electricity from a wide-range of competitive, clean energy sources. It will also create beneficial socioeconomic opportunities by increasing interregional access to affordable African renewable energy resources within the continent, fostering investment opportunities, job growth and ultimately contributing to the region’s sustainable development.
The urgency of this task is underlined by the prospect of carbon lock-in. Existing plans in Eastern and Southern African countries include more than 100 GW of new coal-fired power plants by 2040 – the development of which would triple carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to 1,200 megatonnes (Mt) per year. Under the CMP, power generation options will be reviewed and re-considered to maximise socioeconomic benefits while simultaneously minimising emissions.
IRENA and the IAEA, as modelling partners, will support African stakeholders with the development of the CMP identifying surplus and deficit regions/countries in Africa in terms of electricity generation and demand. This will help identify the most cost-effective ways of expanding clean electricity generation and transmission infrastructure across the African continent.
IRENA and IAEA will also train AUDA-NEPAD staff and Power Pool experts on the use of the modelling tools, including IRENA’s System Planning Test (SPLAT) models using the IAEA’s Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental Impacts (Message) tool, and support the team in the development of the CMP, ensuring knowledge transfer and capacity building.
The MESSAGE-SPLAT capacity expansion models are a key component and product of IRENA’s support to African countries. Built using the MESSAGE software, the agency has developed SPLAT models covering 47 African countries across the five African power pools. They have been used in IRENA’s capacity building programmes on energy planning across the continent.
The IAEA and IRENA cooperate on energy planning with a view to enhancing the effectiveness and impact of capacity-building efforts by joining the complementary competencies of the two organisations. The inter-agency cooperation was formalized through a Practical Arrangement, signed by both organizations on 2 November 2016, and extended for another three years in 2019.